Electricity Demand and Supply Estimation and Export Potential Examination in Iran

Varahrami, Vida; Shahrizadeh, Mahshid

doi:10.30503/jeedev.2025.513024.1038

Electricity Demand and Supply Estimation and Export Potential Examination in Iran

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Vida Varahrami

Mahshid Shahrizadeh

Shahid beheshti university

10.30503/jeedev.2025.513024.1038

Abstract

Electricity plays a vital role in economic growth and social welfare, making power supply stability critical. Its non-storability requires immediate consumption, emphasizing accurate forecasting to prevent shortages and optimize surplus for export. For Iran, with abundant natural gas resources and strategic geography, electricity trade can diversify revenues beyond oil. However, systematic planning to optimize production and balance domestic use with exports remains limited, while regulatory and seasonal demand challenges persist. This study estimates Iran’s electricity supply and demand using seasonal data from 2009–2019 with the OLS method to calculate price elasticity and compares production under competitive versus monopoly conditions, showing that restructuring could enhance output. Using the ARIMA model, electricity supply and demand are forecasted until 2026–27 to evaluate export potential and inform policy for market restructuring and seasonal shortage management.

Keywords

Electricity demand

Electricity supply

Electricity market restructuring

Electricity export

Electricity market

Subjects